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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/392| An international comparison of the second derivative of COVID-19 deaths after implementation of social distancing measures | |
| Vikas Saini William Thomas Pike | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.25.20041475 | |
| This work compares deaths for confirmed COVID-19 cases in China to eight other countries, Italy, Spain, France, USA, UK, Germany, Netherlands and South Korea. After implementing varying intensities and timing of social distancing measures, several appear to be converging onto the decline in the daily growth rate of deaths, or relative second derivative of total deaths, seen in China after the implementation an aggressive social distancing policy. By calculating future trajectories in these countries based on the observed Chinese fatality statistics, an estimate of the total deaths and maximum daily death rates over a defined period of time is made. Our lower bound estimate for the United Kingdom based on the real data approximates the lower bound estimate of the recent modelling study of Ferguson et al. [1]. These results suggest there may be a threshold of effective public health intervention. Our method of viewing the data may be helpful in monitoring the course of the epidemic, judging the effectiveness of implementation, and monitoring the relaxation of social distancing. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement No external funding ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes Data available at: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.25.20041475v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| An international comparison.pdf | 205.34 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |