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Assessing the potential impact of COVID-19 in Brazil: Mobility, Morbidity and the burden on the Health Care System
Jessica T Davis
Daniel Villela
Leonardo S Bastos
Ana Pastory y Piontti
Oswaldo G Cruz
Raquel Martins Lana
Claudia T Codeco
Alessandro Vespignani
Flavio Codeco Coelho
Marcelo F.C. Gomes
Novel Coronavirus
Acceso Abierto
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas
10.1101/2020.03.19.20039131
The two largest Brazilian cities, Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo, have declared community transmission of COVID-19 on mid March, 2020. In this study we estimated the most vulnerable areas in Brazil for COVID-19, both in terms of risk of introduction and risk of mortality associated with social vulnerability. We explore the most likely routes of spread through the country, from the already exposed cities, according to human mobility statistics. The resulting maps should help authorities in their efforts to prioritize actions and if resource allocation to mitigate the effects of the pandemic. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement D.V. is a CNPq/Brazil Fellow, R.M.L is a INOVA/Fiocruz Fellow ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes Data will become available after peer-review
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
2020
Preimpreso
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.19.20039131v2
Inglés
VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS
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