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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/389| Age-dependent effects in the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics | |
| Petra Klepac Yang Liu Kiesha Prem Mark Jit CMMID COVID-19 working group Rosalind M Eggo Nicholas G Davies | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.24.20043018 | |
| The COVID-19 pandemic has shown a markedly low proportion of cases among children. Age disparities in observed cases could be explained by assortative mixing patterns and reactive school closures which decrease mixing between children, or by children exhibiting lower susceptibility to infection, or by children having a lower propensity to show clinical symptoms. We formally test these hypotheses by fitting an age-structured mathematical model to epidemic data from six countries, finding strong age dependence in the probability of developing clinical symptoms, rising from around 20% in under 10s to over 70% in older adults. We find that interventions aimed at halting transmission in children may have minimal effects on preventing cases depending on the relative transmissibility of subclinical infections. Our estimated age-specific clinical fraction has implications for the expected global burden of clinical cases because of demographic differences across settings. In younger populations, the expected clinical attack rate would be lower, although it is likely that comorbidities in low-income countries will affect disease severity. Without effective control measures, regions with older populations may see disproportionally more clinical cases, particularly in the later stages of the pandemic. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement We acknowledge the following for funding: NGD: National Institutes of Health Research (HPRU-2012-10096). PK, YL, KP, MJ: This research was partly funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-003174). YL, MJ: This research was partly funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) (16/137/109) using UK aid from the UK Government to support global health research. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the UK Department of Health and Social Care. RME: HDR UK (grant: MR/S003975/1). The members of the CMMID COVID-19 working group and the funding they acknowledge are: Carl A B Pearson, Billy J Quilty (NIHR 16/137/109), Adam J Kucharski (Wellcome Trust grant: 206250/Z/17/Z), Hamish Gibbs (funded by the Department of Health and Social Care using UK Aid funding and is managed by the NIHR. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the Department of Health and SocialCare (ITCRZ 03010), Samuel Clifford (Wellcome Trust grant: 208812/Z/17/Z), Amy Gimma (Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) for the project "RECAP" managed through RCUK and ESRC (ES/P010873/1), Kevin van Zandvoort (supported by Elrhas Research for Health in Humanitarian Crises (R2HC) Programme, which aims to improve health outcomes by strengthening the evidence base for public health interventions in humanitarian crises. The R2HC programme is funded by the UK Government (DFID), the Wellcome Trust, and the UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), James D Munday (Wellcome Trust grant: 210758/Z/18/Z), Charlie Diamond (NIHR 16/137/109), W John Edmunds, Joel Hellewell (Wellcome Trust grant: 210758/Z/18/Z), Timothy W Russel (Wellcome Trust grant: 206250/Z/17/Z), Sam Abbott (Wellcome Trust grant: 210758/Z/18/Z), Sebastian Funk (Wellcome Trust grant: 210758/Z/18/Z), Nikos I Bosse, Fiona Sun (NIHR EPIC grant 16/137/109), Stefan Flasche (Wellcome Trust grant: 208812/Z/17/Z), Alicia Rosello (NIHR grant: PR-OD-1017-20002), Christopher I Jarvis (Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) project RECAP managed through RCUK and ESRC (ES/P010873/1)), RMGJH (European Research Commission Starting Grant: #757699). ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All data used for the analysis are publicly available. Analysis code will be made available on Github. | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.24.20043018v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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