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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/388| Is a COVID19 Quarantine Justified in Chile or USA Right Now? | |
| Rafael Gonzalez Gonzalez Francisco Munoz Pablo S Moya Miguel Kiwi | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.23.20042002 | |
| During the current COVID-19 pandemic it is imperative to give early warnings to reduce mortality. However, non-specialist such as authorities and the general population face several problems to understand the real thread of this pandemic, and under/overestimation of its risk are a commonplace in the press and social media. Here we define an index, which we call the COVID-19 Burden Index, that relates the capacities of the healthcare system of a given country to treat severe and critical cases. Its value is 0 if there is no extra strain in the healthcare system, and it reaches 1.0 when the collapse is imminent. As of 23 March 2020, we show that Chile, the USA, UK, among other countries, must reduce the rate of infections right now, otherwise, in less than 7 days they could be in a catastrophic situation such as Italy, Spain and Iran. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement The authors are supported by ANID Chile through Fondecyt grants Nos. 1191351, 1191353, and 11180557, the Center for the Development of Nanoscience and and Nanotechnology CEDENNA AFB180001, and Conicyt PIA/Anillo ACT192023. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes No extra data available | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.23.20042002v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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