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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/3867| ESTIMATION OF COVID-19 CASES IN FRANCE AND IN DIFFERENT COUNTRIES: HOMOGENEISATION BASED ON MORTALITY | |
| Marc Dhenain. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.04.07.20055913 | |
| Every day the authorities of different countries provide an estimate of the number of persons affected by Covid-19 and a count of mortality. We propose to use the mortality reported in each country to provide a better estimate (Ct0-estimated) of the number of cases at a given time t0. Ct0-estimated = (Mt0/ Mr-est) * (Ct0/Ct0-18d) With Mt0 : number of deaths reported in a country at time t0; Mr-est : estimated mortality rate; Ct0 : number of cases reported in a country at time t0; Cto-18d : number of cases reported in the country at time t0 minus 18 days. Based on this index and an estimated mortality rate of 2%, we assessed the number of cases April 2, 2020 in Belgium, China, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, South Korea, Netherlands, Spain, United Kingdom and USA. This number reaches 3,538,549 in France and 809,896 persons in Germany. The proposed formula also makes it possible to evaluate the impact of policies to prevent the spread of epidemic on the appearance of new cases. | |
| www.medrxiv.org | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.07.20055913v2.full.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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|---|---|---|---|
| 1105376.pdf | 1.25 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |