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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/381| A deductive approach to modeling the spread of COVID-19 | |
| Pranav Kumar Mishra Shekhar Mishra | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.26.20044651 | |
| Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2), previously known as 2019-nCoV, is responsible for the atypical pneumonia pandemic designated as Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The confirmed number of cases continues to grow exponentially reaching 492,000 people in 175 countries as of March 25, 2020. 22,169 people (~4.5%) infected with SARS-COV-2 virus have died. We have developed an exponential regression model using the COVID-19 case data (Jan 22 - Mar 22, 2020). Our primary model uses designated Phase 1 countries , who exceed 2500 cases on Mar 22. The model is then applied to Phase 2 countries : those that escaped the initial Phase 1 global expansion of COVID-19. With the exception of stabilizing countries (South Korea, Japan, and Iran) all Phase 1 countries are growing exponentially, as per I2500(t)=120.4 × e0.238t , with a rate, r = 0.238 ± 0.068. Excluding China, the BRICS developing nations and Australia are in Phase 2 . Case data from Phase 2 countries are following the model derived from Phase 1 countries . In the absence of measures employed to flatten the curve including social distancing, quarantine, and healthcare expansion, our model projects over 274,000 cases and 12,300 deaths in the US by Mar 31. India can expect 123,000 cases by April 16. By flattening the curve to the growth rate of stabilizing countries (r = 0.044 ± 0.062), the US would prevent 8,500 deaths by Mar 31, and India would prevent 5,500 deaths by April 16. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement No funding was received or required for this study ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes Our study examines this pandemic through data provided by the Johns Hopkins Universitys Systems Science and Engineering Group (JHU CSSE. It is an aggregation of case data starting on January 22, 2020 CSSEGISandData. 2019 Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-NCoV) Data Repository by Johns Hopkins CSSE. Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering; 2020. https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19. Accessed March 23, 2020. <https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19> | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.26.20044651v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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