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APPLICATION OF AN AGE-STRUCTURED DETERMINISTIC ENDEMIC MODEL FOR DISEASE CONTROL IN NIGERIA
Alexander Okhuese Victor
Novel Coronavirus
Acceso Abierto
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas
10.1101/2020.03.28.20046300
This paper focuses on the development and analysis of the endemic model for disease control in an aged-structured population in Nigeria. Upon the model framework development, the model equations were transformed into proportions with rate of change of the different compartments forming the model, thereby reducing the model equations from twelve to ten homogenous ordinary differential equations. The model exhibits two equilibria, the endemic state and the disease-free equilibrium state while successfully achieving a Reproductive Number R_0=0. The deterministic endemic susceptible-exposed-infected-removed-undetectable=untransmissible-susceptible (SEIRUS) model is analyzed for the existence and stability of the disease-free equilibrium state. We established that a disease-free equilibrium state exists and is locally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number 0≤R_0<1. Furthermore, numerical simulations were carried to complement the analytical results in investigating the effect treatment rate and the net transmission rate on recovery for both juvenile and adult sub-population in an age-structured population. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This study was purely funded by the researcher and no external fund was acquired for this study. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes The data available for use in this study was retrieved from WPR (2019) and UNAID (2017)
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
2020
Preimpreso
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.28.20046300v1
Inglés
VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS
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