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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/368| How will this continue? Modelling interactions between the COVID-19 pandemic and policy responses | |
| Robert J. Knell Axel G Rossberg | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.30.20047597 | |
| Much of the uncertainty about the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic stems from questions about when and how non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) by governments, in particular social distancing measures, are implemented, to what extent the population complies with these measures, and how compliance changes through time. Further uncertainty comes from a lack of knowledge of the potential effects of removing interventions once the epidemic is declining. By combining an epidemiological model of COVID-19 for the United Kingdom with simple sub-models for these societal processes, this study aims to shed light on the conceivable trajectories that the pandemic might follow over the next 1.5 years. We show strong improvements in outcomes if governments review NPI more frequently whereas, in comparison, the stability of compliance has surprisingly small effects on cumulative mortality. Assuming that mortality does considerably increase once a country's hospital capacity is breached, we show that the inherent randomness of societal processes can lead to a wide range of possible outcomes, both in terms of disease dynamics and mortality, even when the principles according to which policy and population operate are identical.. Our model is easily modified to take other aspects of the socio-pandemic interaction into account. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This research was partially supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/T003510/1). ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes The simulation code underlying this study is available following the link below. <https://github.com/pipapu/Covid-19-Policy-Simulator/releases/tag/v1.0.0> | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.30.20047597v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| How will this continue.pdf | 986.16 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |