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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/364| Flattening the curve is not enough, we need to squash it. An explainer using a simple model | |
| James M Trauer Michael T Meehan Emma S McBryde | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.30.20048009 | |
| Background: Around the world there are examples of both very good and effective control (e.g., South Korea, Japan) and slower, less aggressive control (e.g., Italy, Spain, United States) of COVID-19 with dramatic differences in the consequent epidemic curves. Models agree that flattening the curve without controlling the epidemic completely is insufficient and will lead to an overwhelmed health service. A recent model, calibrated for the UK and US, demonstrated this starkly. Methods: We used a simple compartmental deterministic model of COVID-19 transmission in Australia, to illustrate the dynamics resulting from shifting or flattening the curve versus completely squashing it. Results: We find that when the reproduction number is close to one, a small decrease in transmission leads to a large reduction in burden (i.e., cases, deaths and hospitalisations) but achieving this early in the epidemic through social distancing interventions also implies that the community will not reach herd immunity. Conclusions: Australia needs not just to shift and flatten the curve but to squash it by getting the reproduction number below one. This will require Australia to achieve for transmission rates at least two thirds lower than those seen in the most severely affected countries. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement No external funding was received. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes Data and code used in this manuscript are provided in the supporting material | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.30.20048009v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flattening the curve is not enough.pdf | 1.63 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |