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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/3635| Estimating the impact of mobility patterns on COVID-19 infection rates in 11 European countries | |
| Patrick Bryant. Arne Elofsson. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.04.13.20063644 | |
| As governments across Europe have issued non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as social distancing and school closing, the mobility patterns in these countries have changed. It is likely different countries and populations respond differently to the same NPIs and that these differences are reflected in the epidemic development. Here, we model the impact of the changes in mobility patterns in 11 European countries by estimating the effect of these on the basic reproductive number, R0, in a Bayesian framework. By modelling changes in R0 with real-life mobility data, the true effects of responses to NPIs across different countries can be modelled more accurately. We assume the impact of each mobility change has the same relative impact across all countries and across time. We utilize mobility data from Google mobility reports using five different categories: retail and recreation, grocery and pharmacy, transit stations, workplace and residential. The changes in mobility have a large overlap with the introduction of governmental NPIs, highlighting the importance of government action for population behavioural change. The importance of each mobility category for predicting changes in R0 is estimated through the model. The grocery and pharmacy parameter is estimated to account for above 90 % of the reduction in R0 with a very narrow confidence interval. The model predicts that immediately after the NPIs, R0 rose in several countries as activities in grocery and pharmacy increased, but then it dropped sharply as those activities decreased. We do see worrying patterns in northern Europe as predicted values of R0 are still clearly above 1.0 there, in particular in Sweden with an R0 of 2.27. | |
| www.medrxiv.org | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.13.20063644v2.full.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| 1104741.pdf | 1.15 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |