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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/360| Simple model for Covid-19 epidemics - back-casting in China and forecasting in the US | |
| Slav W Hermanowicz | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.31.20049486 | |
| In our previous work, we analyze, in near-real time, evolution of Covid-19 epidemic in China for the first 22 days of reliable data (up to February 6, 2020). In this work, we used the data for the whole 87 days (up to March 13, 2020) in China and the US data available till March 31 (day 70) for systematic evaluation of the logistic model to predict epidemic growth. We sequentially estimated sets of model parameters (maximum number of cases K, growth rate r, and half-time t0) and the epidemic "end time" t95 (defined as the time when the number of cases, predicted or actual, reached 95% of the maximum). The estimates of these parameters were done for sequences of reported cases growing daily (back-casting for China and forecasting for the US). In both countries, the estimates of K grew very much in time during the exponential and nearly exponential phases making longer term forecasting not reliable. For the US, the current estimate of the maximum number of cases K is about 265,000 but it is very likely that it will grow in the future. However, running estimates of the "end time" t95 were in a much smaller interval for China (60 - 70 days vs. the actual value of 67). For the US, the values estimated from the data sequences going back two weeks from now range from 70 to 80 days. If the behavior of the US epidemic is similar to the previous Chinese development, the number of reported cases could reach a maximum around April 10 to 14. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This work was not funded. The funding agencies had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript; or decision to submit the manuscript for publication. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes data in the paper | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.31.20049486v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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