Por favor, use este identificador para citar o enlazar este ítem:
http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/356| COVID-19 attack rate increases with city size | |
| Marc G. Berman Luis M. A. Bettencourt Andrew J. Stier | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.22.20041004 | |
| The current outbreak of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses an unprecedented global health and economic threat to interconnected human societies. Until a vaccine is developed, strategies for controlling the outbreak rely on aggressive social distancing. These measures largely disconnect the social network fabric of human societies, especially in urban areas. Here, we estimate the growth rates and reproductive numbers of COVID-19 in US cities from March 14th through March 19th to reveal a power-law scaling relationship to city population size. This means that COVID-19 is spreading faster on average in larger cities with the additional implication that, in an uncontrolled outbreak, larger fractions of the population are expected to become infected in more populous urban areas. We discuss the implications of these observations for controlling the COVID-19 outbreak, emphasizing the need to implement more aggressive distancing policies in larger cities while also preserving socioeconomic activity. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This research is partially supported by the Mansueto Institute for Urban Innovation and a Social Science Research grant from the University of Chicago. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes COVID-19 case data by county is available at https://github.com/tomquisel/covid19-data. US Census population data is available at https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-counties-total.html. MSA delineation files are available at https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/metro-micro/about/delineation-files.html. <https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/metro-micro/about/delineation-files.html> <https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-counties-total.html> <https://github.com/tomquisel/covid19-data> | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.22.20041004v2 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
Cargar archivos:
| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| COVID-19 attack rate.pdf | 1.53 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |