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Partial unlock model for COVID-19 or similar pandemic averts medical and economic disaster
Robert L Shuler
Novel Coronavirus
Acceso Abierto
Data as of March 29, 2020 show that the flattening strategy for COVID-19 in the U.S. is working so well that a clean removal of social distancing (aka unlock) at any time in 2020 will produce a renewed catastrophe, overloading the healthcare system. Leaving the economy locked down for a long time is its own catastrophe. An SIR-type model with clear parameters suitable for public information, and both tracking and predictive capabilities which learns disease spread characteristics rapidly as policy changes, suggests that a solution to the problem is a partial unlock. Case load can be managed so as not to exceed critical resources such as ventilators, yet allow enough people to get sick that herd immunity develops and a full unlock can be achieved in as little as five weeks from beginning of implementation. The partial unlock could be for example 3 full working days per week. Given that not all areas or individuals will respond, and travel and public gatherings are still unlikely, the partial unlock might be 5 full working days per week. The model can be regionalized easily, and by expediting the resolution of the pandemic in the U.S. medical equipment and volunteers, many of them with already acquired immunity, can be made available to other countries. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement No external funding used in this research. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes The model file will be uploaded as a supplementary file. It is also available at The small amount of data is available from the CDC at a link provided in the paper. <>
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
Appears in Collections:Artículos científicos

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