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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/3427| Predict the next moves of COVID-19: reveal the temperate and tropical countries scenario | |
| Hasan Neaz A. Haque Mohammad Mahfujul. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.04.04.20052928 | |
| The spread of COVID-19 engulfs almost all the countries and territories of the planet, and infections and fatality are increasing rapidly. The first epi-center of its' massive spread was in Wuhan, Hubei province, China having a temperate weather, but the spread has got an unprecedented momentum in European temperate countries mainly in Italy and Spain (as of March 30, 2020). However, Malaysia and Singapore and the neighboring tropical countries of China got relatively low spread and fatality that created a research interest on whether there are potential impacts of weather condition on COVID-19 spread. Adopting the SIR (Susceptible Infected Removed) deviated model to predict potential cases and death in the coming days from COVID-19 was done using the secondary and official sources of data. This study shows that COVID-19 spread and fatality tend to be high across the world but compared to tropical countries, it is going to be incredibly high in the temperate countries having lower temperature (7-16°C) and humidity (80-90%) in last March. However, some literature predicted that this might not to be true, rather irrespective of weather conditions there might be a continuous spread and death. Moreover, a large number of asymptotic COVID-19 carrier in both temperate and tropical countries may re-outbreak in the coming winter. Therefore, a comprehensive global program with the leadership of WHO for testing of entire population of the world is required, which will be very useful for the individual states to take proper political action, social movement and medical services. | |
| www.medrxiv.org | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/04/07/2020.04.04.20052928.full.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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