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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/331| Using Paired Agent-Based Simulations To Test Strategies For Limiting The Effects Of Epidemics | |
| Flavio Codeco Coelho Margaret Armstrong | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/19014043 | |
| Agent-based simulations are widely used nowadays in public health research for comparing different strategies for mitigating epidemics and for planning appropriate responses in the aftermath of crises in large urban areas because they can capture fine scale heterogeneities that may have important non-linear effects on the results. Given the costs of implementing strategies, decision-makers have to be convinced that the proposed treatment/procedure leads to a statistically significant improvement. This paper presents an innovative method for constructing paired agent-based simulations where exactly the same set of random effects is applied to simulations with and without the treatment/procedure. Statistical Analysis of Variance distinguishes the sum of squares between groups (BSS) from the sum of squares within groups (WSS). Our aim was to filter out the within sum of squares (WSS) leaving only the sum of squares between the control group and the treatment group (BSS). We propose to filter out the WSS by constructing paired simulations because as is well known, when paired t-tests can be used, they are much more powerful than ordinary t-tests. Pearson's Chi-squared goodness of fit, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic and the Kullback-Leibler Divergence are then used to test whether the effect is statistically significant. This procedure has been tested on a case-study on the propagation of the Zika epidemic in Rio de Janeiro in 2015. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement No external funding is associated with this work. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes This works does not include any data. Simulation Code is available on Github. <https://github.com/fccoelho/PairedSimulations> | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2019 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/19014043v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
Cargar archivos:
| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Using Paired Agent.pdf | 1.34 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |