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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/3300| The changing patter of COVID-19 in China: A tempo-geographic analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic | |
| Weiming T. Huipeng L. Gifty M. Zaisheng W. Weibin C. Dan W. Rongbin Y. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1093/cid/ciaa423 | |
| Abstract Background Evaluating whether an infectious disease has reached a turning point is important for planning additional intervention efforts. This study aimed to analyze the changing patterns and the tempo-geographic features of the COVID-19 epidemic, to provide further evidence for real-time responses. Methods Daily data on COVID-2019 cases between 31st Dec. 2019 and 26th Feb. 2020 were collected and analyzed for Hubei and non-Hubei regions. Observed trends for new and cumulative cases were analyzed through joint-point regressions. Spatial analysis was applied to show the geographic distribution and changing pattern of the epidemic. Results By 26th Feb. 2020, 78,630 confirmed COVID-19 cases had been reported in China. In Hubei, an increasing trend (slope=221) was observed for new cases between 24th Jan. and February 7th Feb. 2020, after which a decline commenced (slope=-868). However, as the diagnosis criteria changed, a sudden increase (slope=5530) was observed on 12th Feb., which sharply decreased afterward (slope=-4898). In non-Hubei regions, the number of new cases increased from 20th Jan. to 3rd Feb. and started to decline afterward (slope=-53). The spatial analysis identified Chongqing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Changsha, Nanchang, Wenzhou, Shanghai, Xinyang, Jining, and Beijing as the hotspots outside of Hubei province in China. Conclusion and relevance The joint-point regression analysis indicated that the epidemic might have been under control in China, especially for regions outside of Hubei province. Further improvement in the response strategies based on these new patterns is needed. | |
| Clinical Infectious Diseases | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://academic.oup.com/cid/article-pdf/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa423/33049792/ciaa423.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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