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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/3193| Covid-19 Outbreak Progression in Italian Regions: Approaching the Peak by March 29th | |
| DISTANTE COSIMO. PISCITELLI PRISCO. MIANI ALESSANDRO. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.30.20043612 | |
| Setting: Italy and especially Lombardy is experiencing a heavy burden of Covid-19 infection. The peak of the epidemics has not yet been reached and it is expected to be delayed in Central and Southern Italian regions compared to Northern ones. Objective: We have modeled the Covid-19 outbreak progression in Italian Regions vs. Lombardy to assess the epidemics. Primary and Secondary Measures: In our models, we have estimated the basic reproduction number (R0) which represents the average number of people that can be infected by a person who has already acquired the infection both by fitting the exponential growth rate of the infection across a 1month period and also by using day by day assessment, based on single observations. We used the susceptible exposed infected removed (SEIR) compartment model to predict the spreading of the pandemic in Italy. Results. The two methods provide agreements of values, although the first method based on exponential fit should provide a better estimation, being computed on the entire time series. Taking into account the growth rate of the infection across a 1-month period, in Lombardy each infected person has involved other 5 people (4.94 based on data of March 22nd) compared to a value of R0=2.68 reported in the Chinese city of Whuan. According to our model and Piedmont, Veneto, Emilia Romagna, Tuscany and Marche reach an R0 value up to 4. The R0 is 3.7 for Lazio and 3.6 for Campania region, where this latter shows the highest value among the Southern Italian regions, followed by Apulia (3.5), Sicily (3.4), Abruzzo (3.4), Calabria (3.1), Basilicata (2.5) and Molise (2.4). The value of R0 is decreasing in Lombardy and Northern Regions, while it is increasing in Central and Southern Regions. Conclusion. The peak is expected by March 29th at national level. | |
| www.medrxiv.org | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/04/02/2020.03.30.20043612.full.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| 1103634.pdf | 460.66 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |