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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/293| Beyond R0: the importance of contact tracing when predicting epidemics | |
| Samuel V. Scarpino Laurent Hébert-Dufresne Benjamin M. Althouse Antoine Allard | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución | |
| 10.1101/2020.02.10.20021725 | |
| The basic reproductive number ---| R ---| is one of the most common and most commonly misapplied numbers in public health. Nevertheless, estimating R for every transmissible pathogen, emerging or endemic, remains a priority for epidemiologists the world over. Although often used to compare outbreaks and forecast pandemic risk, this single number belies the complexity that two different pathogens can exhibit, even when they have the same R. Here, we show how predicting outbreak size requires both an estimate of R and an estimate of the heterogeneity in the number of secondary infections. To facilitate rapid determination of outbreak risk, we propose a reformulation of a classic result from random network theory that relies on contact tracing data to simultaneously determine the first moment (R) and the higher moments (representing the heterogeneity) in the distribution of secondary infections. Further, we show how this framework is robust in the face of the typically limited amount of data for emerging pathogens. Lastly, we demonstrate that without data on the heterogeneity in secondary infections for emerging pathogens like 2019-nCoV, the uncertainty in outbreak size ranges dramatically, in the case of 2019-nCoV from 5-40% of susceptible individuals. Taken together, our work highlights the critical need for contact tracing during emerging infectious disease outbreaks and the need to look beyond R when predicting epidemic size. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement National Science Foundation (grant no. DMS-1829826); Sentinelle Nord project from the Canada First Research Excellence Fund; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (project 2019-05183) ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes Non applicable | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.10.20021725v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| Beyond R.pdf | 427.75 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |