Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://covid-19.conacyt.mx/jspui/handle/1000/290
Can Search Query Forecast successfully in China's 2019-nCov pneumonia?
Wu Qi
Lv Benfu
Li Xiaoxuan
Novel Coronavirus
Acceso Abierto
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas
10.1101/2020.02.12.20022400
Recently the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) pneumonia outbreak in China then the world, and the Number of infections and death continues to increases. Search Query performs well in forecasting the epidemics. It is still a question whether search engine data can forecast the drift and the inflexion in 2019-nCov pneumonia. Based on the Baidu Search Index, we propose three prediction models: composite Index, composite Index with filtering and suspected NCP(Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia). The result demonstrates that the predictive model of composite index with filtering performs the best while the model of suspected NCP has the highest forecast error. We further predict the out-of-the-set NCP confirmed cases and monitor that the next peak of new diagnoses will occur on February 16th and 17th. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This research is funded by Anhui Natural Science Foundation (No.1908085QG305) ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes the new confirmed cases and the new suspected cases is availabe from National Health Commission of China. The Baidu search engines data is available from the Baidu Website. <http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/xxgzbd/gzbd_index.shtml> <http://index.baidu.com/v2/index.html#/>
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
2020
Preimpreso
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022400v1
Inglés
VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS
Appears in Collections:Artículos científicos

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