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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/2869| A hybrid multi-scale model of COVID-19 transmission dynamics to assess the potential of non-pharmaceutical interventions | |
| Bouchnita Anass. Jebrane Aissam. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.04.05.20054460 | |
| Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a novel coronavirus that emerged in Wuhan, China in December 2019. It has caused a global outbreak which represents a major threat to global health. Public health resorted to non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing and lockdown to slow down the spread of the pandemic. However, the effect of each of these measures remains hard to quantify. We design a multi-scale model that simulates the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. We describe the motion of individual agents using a social force model. Each agent can be either susceptible, infected, quarantined, immunized or deceased. The model considers both mechanisms of direct and indirect transmission. We parameterize the model to reproduce the early dynamics of disease spread in Italy. We show that panic situations increase the risk of infection transmission in crowds despite social distancing measures. Next, we suggest that pre-symptomatic transmission could be a significant driver of the infection spread. Then, we show that the restricted movement of the individuals flattens the epidemic curve. Finally, model predictions suggest that measures stricter than social distancing and lockdown were used to control the epidemic in Wuhan, China. | |
| www.medrxiv.org | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/04/07/2020.04.05.20054460.full.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| 1102846.pdf | 1.2 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |