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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/2774| Diminishing Marginal Benefit of Social Distancing in Balancing COVID-19 Medical Demand-to-Supply | |
| Pai Liu. Payton Beeler. Rajan K Chakrabarty. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.04.09.20059550 | |
| Social distancing has been adopted as a non-pharmaceutical intervention to prevent the COVID-19 pandemic from overwhelming the medical resources across the United States (US). The catastrophic socio-economic impacts of this intervention could outweigh its benefits if the timing and duration of implementation are left uncontrolled and ill-strategized. Here we investigate the dynamics of social distancing on age-stratified US population and benchmark its effectiveness in reducing the burden on hospital and ICU beds. Our findings highlight the diminishing marginal benefit of social distancing, characterized by a linear decrease in medical demands against an exponentially increasing social distancing duration. We determine an optimal intermittent social-to-no-distancing ratio of 5:1 corresponding to ~80% reduction in healthcare demands; beyond this ratio, benefit of social distancing diminishes to a negligible level. COVID-19 Medical Forecast: https://eece.wustl.edu/chakrabarty-group/covid/ | |
| www.medrxiv.org | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.09.20059550v1.full.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| 1102666.pdf | 1.61 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |