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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/275| Getting to zero quickly in the 2019-nCov epidemic with vaccines or rapid testing | |
| Ranu Dhillon Devabhaktuni Srikrishna Gerardo Chowell | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.02.03.20020271 | |
| Any plan for stopping the ongoing 2019-nCov epidemic must be based on a quantitative understanding of the proportion of the at-risk population that needs to be protected by effective control measures in order for transmission to decline sufficiently and quickly enough for the epidemic to end. Using an SEIR-type transmission model, we contrasted two alternate strategies by modeling the proportion of the population that needs to be protected from infection by one-time vaccination (assuming 100% effectiveness) or by testing with isolation and treatment of individuals within six, 24, or 48 hours of symptom onset. If R is currently 2.2, vaccination at the herd immunity coverage of 55% would drive R just below 1, but transmission could persist for years. Over 80% of coverage is required to end the epidemic in 6 months with population-wide vaccination. The epidemic could be ended in just under a year if testing with isolation and treatment reached 80% of symptomatically infected patients within 24 hours of symptom onset (assuming 10% asymptomatic transmission). The epidemic could be ended in six months if testing with isolation and treatment reached 90% of symptomatic patients. If 90% of symptomatic patients could be tested within six hours of symptoms appearing, the epidemic could be ended in under four months. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement GC acknowledges support from NSF grant 1414374 as part of the joint NSF-NIH-USDA Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Diseases program. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All data is publicly available | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.03.20020271v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| getting to zero quickly.pdf | 271.66 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |