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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/274| Population movement, city closure and spatial transmission of the 2019-nCoV infection in China | |
| Hualiang Lin Yinglin Wu Siqi Ai Guanghu Zhu Fei Tian Huan Li Yuan Gao Qiyong Liu | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.02.04.20020339 | |
| The outbreak of pneumonia caused by a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan City of China obtained global concern, the population outflow from Wuhan has contributed to spatial expansion in other parts of China. We examined the effects of population outflow from Wuhan on the 2019-nCoV transmission in other provinces and cities of China, as well as the impacts of the city closure in Wuhan. We observed a significantly positive association between population movement and the number of cases. Further analysis revealed that if the city closure policy was implemented two days earlier, 1420 (95% CI: 1059, 1833) cases could be prevented, and if two days later, 1462 (95% CI: 1090, 1886) more cases would be possible. Our findings suggest that population movement might be one important trigger of the 2019-nCoV infection transmission in China, and the policy of city closure is effective to prevent the epidemic. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement We appreciated the support by National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No: 2018YFA0606200). The funder had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All URLs of the database related to the manuscript are provided as follows. <http://www.nhc.gov.cn/> <http://qianxi.baidu.com> | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020339v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| pupulation movement.pdf | 405.51 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |