Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://covid-19.conacyt.mx/jspui/handle/1000/2684
On a Statistical Transmission Model in Analysis of the Early Phase of COVID-19 Outbreak
Zhu Yifan.
Chen Ying Qing.
Acceso Abierto
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas
10.1007/s12561-020-09277-0
Since December 2019, a disease caused by a novel strain of coronavirus (COVID-19) had infected many people and the cumulative confirmed cases have reached almost 180,000 as of 17, March 2020. The COVID-19 outbreak was believed to have emerged from a seafood market in Wuhan, a metropolis city of more than 11 million population in Hubei province, China. We introduced a statistical disease transmission model using case symptom onset data to estimate the transmissibility of the early-phase outbreak in China, and provided sensitivity analyses with various assumptions of disease natural history of the COVID-19. We fitted the transmission model to several publicly available sources of the outbreak data until 11, February 2020, and estimated lock down intervention efficacy of Wuhan city. The estimated R0 was between 2.7 and 4.2 from plausible distribution assumptions of the incubation period and relative infectivity over the infectious period. 95% confidence interval of R0 were also reported. Potential issues such as data quality concerns and comparison of different modelling approaches were discussed.
Statistics in Biosciences
2020
Artículo
https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s12561-020-09277-0.pdf
Inglés
VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS
Appears in Collections:Artículos científicos

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