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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/263| A model simulation study on effects of intervention measures in Wuhan COVID-19 epidemic | |
| Chunhua CHI Guopeng ZHOU | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.02.14.20023168 | |
| Background: In the beginning of January 2020, new unknown virus pneumonia cases started to emerge in local hospitals in Wuhan, China. This virus epidemic quickly became a public health emergency of international concern by the WHO. Enormous amount of medical supplies as well as healthcare personals from other provinces were mobilized to support Wuhan. This current work tent to help people understanding how infectious disease spread and the purpose and consequences of various efforts based on simulation model. Method: a simulation model was created using known parameters. R0 set to 3 and mean incubation time to be 7.5days. the epidemic was divided to 3 periods. Simulation would run 50 times to mimic different patient0 status. Personal activity index was used to mimic different level of control measures. 141427709 simulated patients were created. Cumulation number of patients at the end of period 1 (day50) is 2868.7 ± 1739.0. Total infected patients could be 913396.5 ± 559099.9 by the end of period 2 (day70) in free transmission state. And at day90, total patients number is 913396.5 ± 559099.9. Conclusion: COVID-19 is a novel severe respiratory disease. This will put great burden on the shoulder of healthcare workers as well as on medical hardware and supplements. Current strict control measures help to contain disease from spreading. An early detecting, reporting and fast reacting system needs to be setup to prevent future unknown infectious disease. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement no funding ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes no actual patient data were used in this research | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.14.20023168v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| a model simulation study.pdf | 500.6 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |