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Mandated Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination predicts flattened curves for the spread of COVID-19
Berg Martha K.
Yu Qinggang.
Salvador Cristina E.
Melani Irene.
Kitayama Shinobu.
Acceso Abierto
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas
10.1101/2020.04.05.20054163
Prior work suggests that BCG vaccination reduces the risk of different infectious diseases. BCG vaccination may thus serve as a protective factor against COVID-19. Here, we drew on day-by-day reports of both confirmed cases and deaths and analyzed growth curves in countries that mandate BCG policies versus countries that do not. Linear mixed models revealed that the presence of mandated BCG policies was associated with a significant flattening of the exponential increase in both confirmed cases and deaths during the first 30-day period of country-wise outbreaks. This effect held after controlling for median age, gross domestic product per capita, population density, population size, geographic region, net migration rate, and various cultural dimensions (e.g., individualism and the tightness vs. looseness of social norms). Our analysis suggests that mandated BCG vaccination can be effective in the fight against COVID-19.
www.medrxiv.org
2020
Artículo
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/04/07/2020.04.05.20054163.full.pdf
Inglés
VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS
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