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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/261| Risk map of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China: proportionate control is needed | |
| Yuehua Sun Yingqiang Lou Xumao Zhao Xinhai Li | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución | |
| 10.1101/2020.02.16.20023838 | |
| Background China is running a national level antivirus campaign against the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Strict control measures are being enforced in either the populated areas and remote regions. While the virus is closed to be under control, tremendous economic loss has been caused. Methods and findings We assessed the pandemic risk of 2019-nCoV for all cities/regions in China using the random forest algorithm, taking into account the effect of five factors: the accumulative and increased numbers of confirmed cases, total population, population density, and GDP. We defined four levels of the risk, corresponding to the four response levels to public health emergencies in China. The classification system has good consistency among cities in China, as the error rate of the confusion matrix is 1.58%. Conclusions The pandemic risk of 2019-nCoV is dramatically different among the 442 cities/regions. We recommend to adopt proportionate control policy according to the risk level to reduce unnecessary economic loss. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement None. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All data used in the study are free to public. <https://github.com/Xinhai-Li/2019-nCoV> | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.16.20023838v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| risk map of the novel.pdf | 585.28 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |