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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/260| Tracking and Predicting COVID-19 Epidemic in China Mainland | |
| Haoxuan Sun Yumou Qiu Han Yan Yaxuan Huang Yuru Zhu Song Xi Chen | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.02.17.20024257 | |
| By proposing a varying coefficient Susceptible-Infected-Removal model (vSIR), we track the epidemic of COVID-19 in 30 provinces in China and 15 cities in Hubei province, the epicenter of the outbreak. It is found that the spread of COVID-19 has been significantly slowing down within the two weeks from January 27 to February 10th with 87.0% and 84.3% reductions in the reproduction number R0 among the 30 provinces and 15 Hubei cities, respectively. This suggests the extreme control measures implemented since January 23, which include cutting off Wuhan and many other cities and towns, a great public awareness and high level of self isolation at home, have contributed to a substantial decline in the reproductivity of the COVID-19 in China. We predict that Hubei province will reach its peak between February 20 and 22, 2020, and if the removal rate can be increased to 0.1, the epidemic outside Hubei province will end in May 2020, and inside Hubei in early June. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This research is partially funded by China's National Key Research Special Program Grant 2016YFC0207701 and National Natural Science Foundation of China grants 71532001. Chen also acknowledges support from LMEQF at Peking University. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes The data used for this study are publicly available. The daily records of infected, dead and recovered patients are released by National Health Commission of China (NHCC). | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.17.20024257v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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