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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/257| Assessing the Tendency of 2019-nCoV (COVID-19) Outbreak in China | |
| Zhicheng Liu Qinghe Liu Deqiang Li Zefei Gao Junkai Zhu Junyan Yang Qiao Wang | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.02.09.20021444 | |
| Since December 8, 2019, the spread of COVID-19 is increasing every day. It is particularly important to predict the trend of the epidemic for the timely adjustment of the economy and industries. We proposed a Flow-SEHIR model in this paper, based on which we further analyzed the trends of 2019-nCoV (COVID-19) in China. The results show that the basic reproductive numbers R0 of COVID-19 is 3.56 (95% CI: 2.31-4.81). The number of daily confirmed new cases reaches the inflection point on Feb. 6-10 outside Hubei. For the maximum of infected cases number, the predicted peak value in China except Hubei was estimated to be 13806 (95% CI: 11926-15845). The peak arrival time is on March 3-9. The temporal number of patients in most areas of China outside Hubei will peak from March 12 to March 15. The peak values of more than 73.5% provinces or regions in China will be controlled within 1000. According to Flow-SEHIR model and estimations from the data of evacuation of nationals from Wuhan, the peak cumulative number of patients in Hubei was estimated to be 403481 (95% CI: 143284-1166936). ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement no funding support ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All the data are publicly available from the network <http://qianxi.baidu.com/> <http://www.nhc.gov.cn> <http://ynswsjkw.yn.gov.cn/wjwWebsite/web/index> <http://wjw.beijing.gov.cn/> <http://wjw.hubei.gov.cn/> | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.09.20021444v4 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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