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Relationship between COVID-19 death toll doubling time and national BCG vaccination policy
Yutaka Akiyama.
Takashi Ishida.
Acceso Abierto
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas
10.1101/2020.04.06.20055251
In this manuscript, we showed a statistically significant difference of the doubling times of the death toll between the group of countries with national universal Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination and the group without it for recent years. Based on a statistical test, the distributions of the doubling time of these two groups were significantly different (p=0.004). Miller et al. reported the relationship between BCG vaccination and mortality for COVID-19 based on deaths per million inhabitants. However, they did not take into account the differences in COVID-19 detection rates among the countries and the epidemic stages of the countries. Therefore we used a doubling time of the death toll as a more stable indicator instead. We also investigated the dependency of the BCG strains. Among the 32 BCG-vaccinated countries, the median doubling time of the four countries using "Tokyo 172-1" strain (Japan, Iraq, Malaysia, and Pakistan) was 6.8, and that of the other 28 vaccinated countries was 3.8. Their distributions were also significantly different (p=0.024).
www.medrxiv.org
2020
Artículo
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.06.20055251v2.full.pdf
Inglés
VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS
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