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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/248| A Novel Method for the Estimation of a Dynamic Effective Reproduction Number (Dynamic-R) in the CoViD-19 Outbreak | |
| Yi Chen Chong | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.02.22.20023267 | |
| The CoViD-19 outbreak has escalated to a pandemic in the last few weeks, with no signs of stopping. Pharmaceutical solutions based upon virologic studies, at this point, remain inconclusive. In contrast, this paper looks towards epidemiological models during this phase of viral growth, in particular, by providing a responsive, timely model of the R value based on the previous few days' results. Such an R value, although bearing less statistical precision due to limited sampling, could allow R to become a more effective, responsive standalone measure of infectious transmission. It demonstrates that the R value can be used as a dynamic, time-dependent indicator without the use of curve-fitting, and also estimates the most recent R-value of the CoViD-19 outbreak to be about 4.29, based on the data from the previous 3 days. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement No external funding was received for the work presented. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All data used in the paper are publicly available on the Internet. <https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia> | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.22.20023267v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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