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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/246| Characterizing the transmission and identifying the control strategy for COVID-19 through epidemiological modeling | |
| Ke K. Zhang Linglin Xie Lauren Lawless Huijuan Zhou Guannan Gao Chengbin Xue | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.02.24.20026773 | |
| The outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease, COVID-19, originating from Wuhan, China in early December, has infected more than 70,000 people in China and other countries and has caused more than 2,000 deaths. As the disease continues to spread, the biomedical society urgently began identifying effective approaches to prevent further outbreaks. Through rigorous epidemiological analysis, we characterized the fast transmission of COVID-19 with a basic reproductive number 5.6 and proved a sole zoonotic source to originate in Wuhan. No changes in transmission have been noted across generations. By evaluating different control strategies through predictive modeling and Monte carlo simulations, a comprehensive quarantine in hospitals and quarantine stations has been found to be the most effective approach. Government action to immediately enforce this quarantine is highly recommended. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This work was supported by the internal funding from the Texas A&M University Institute of Biosciences & Technology for the development of the Core of Rigor & Reproducibility. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All data used in this manuscript was obtained from public domain and published literature. The software code and simulated data are available upon request. | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.24.20026773v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| Charecterizing the transmission.pdf | 430.22 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |