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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/239| Risk assessment of novel coronavirus COVID-19 outbreaks outside China | |
| Peter Boldog Tamas Tekeli Zsolt Vizi Attila Denes Ferenc Bartha Gergely Rost | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.02.04.20020503 | |
| We developed a computational tool to assess the risk of novel coronavirus outbreaks outside China. We estimate the dependence of the risk of a major outbreak in a country from imported cases on key parameters such as: (i) the evolution of the cumulative number of cases in mainland China outside the closed areas; (ii) the connectivity of the destination country with China, including baseline travel frequencies, the effect of travel restrictions, and the efficacy of entry screening at destination; (iii) the efficacy of control measures in the destination country (expressed by the local reproduction number Rloc). We found that in countries with low connectivity to China but with relatively high Rloc, the most beneficial control measure to reduce the risk of outbreaks is a further reduction in their importation number either by entry screening or travel restrictions. Countries with high connectivity but low Rloc benefit the most from policies that further reduce Rloc. Countries in the middle should consider a combination of such policies. Risk assessments were illustrated for selected groups of countries from America, Asia and Europe, and we investigated how their risks depend on those parameters, and how the risk is increasing in time as the number of cases in China is growing. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement G.R. was supported by EFOP-3.6.1-16-2016-00008. F.B. was supported by NKFIH KKP 129877. T.T. was supported by NKFI FK 124016, A.D. was supported by NKFIH PD 128363 and by the J'anos Bolyai Research Scholarship of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. P.B. was supported by 20391-3/2018/FEKUSTRAT. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes Links to all data used in the manuscript are provided. <http://www.epirisk.net> <https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wQVypefm946ch4XDp37uZ-wartW4V7ILdg-qYiDXUHM/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true> | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020503v2 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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