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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/237| COVID-19 Epidemic Outside China: 34 Founders and Exponential Growth | |
| Xianhong Yin Meng Liang Xiaoyu Liu Meng Hao Zixin Hu Yi Wang Li Jin Yi Li | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.01.20029819 | |
| Background: In December 2019, pneumonia infected with a novel coronavirus burst in Wuhan, China. Now the situation is almost controlled in China but is worse outside China. We aimed to build a mathematical model to capture the global trend of epidemics outside China. Methods: In this retrospective, outside-China diagnosis number reported from Jan 21 to Feb 28, 2020 was downloaded from WHO website. We develop a simple regression model on these numbers: log10 (Nt+34)=0.0515*t+2.075 where Nt is the total diagnosed patient till the ith day, t=1 at Feb 1. Findings: Based on this model, we estimate that there have been about 34 unobserved founder patients at the beginning of spread outside China. The global trend is approximately exponential, with the rate of 10 folds every 19 days. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement No funding. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes Daily diagnosis number of countries outside China is download from WHO situation reports (https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports). <https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports> | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.01.20029819v2 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| COVID 19 Epidemic outside.pdf | 398.16 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |