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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/235| The impact of social distancing and epicenter lockdown on the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China: A data-driven SEIQR model study | |
| Yuzhen Zhang Bin Jiang Jiamin Yuan Yanyun Tao | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.04.20031187 | |
| The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) which originated in Wuhan, China, constitutes a public health emergency of international concern with a very high risk of spread and impact at the global level. We developed data-driven susceptible-exposed-infectious-quarantine-recovered (SEIQR) models to simulate the epidemic with the interventions of social distancing and epicenter lockdown. Population migration data combined with officially reported data were used to estimate model parameters, and then calculated the daily exported infected individuals by estimating the daily infected ratio and daily susceptible population size. As of Jan 01, 2020, the estimated initial number of latently infected individuals was 380.1 (95%-CI: 379.8~381.0). With 30 days of substantial social distancing, the reproductive number in Wuhan and Hubei was reduced from 2.2 (95%-CI: 1.4~3.9) to 1.58 (95%-CI: 1.34~2.07), and in other provinces from 2.56 (95%-CI: 2.43~2.63) to 1.65 (95%-CI: 1.56~1.76). We found that earlier intervention of social distancing could significantly limit the epidemic in mainland China. The number of infections could be reduced up to 98.9%, and the number of deaths could be reduced by up to 99.3% as of Feb 23, 2020. However, earlier epicenter lockdown would partially neutralize this favorable effect. Because it would cause in situ deteriorating, which overwhelms the improvement out of the epicenter. To minimize the epidemic size and death, stepwise implementation of social distancing in the epicenter city first, then in the province, and later the whole nation without the epicenter lockdown would be practical and cost-effective. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant number 81700298, 61502327 and 81700297), the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Grant number 2019M661935), the Postdoctoral Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (Grant number 2019K056A), and the Suzhou Science and Technology Plan Project (Grant number SYS201736). ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes We are willing to share the data underlying the findings of our manuscript. | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.04.20031187v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| the impact of social distancing.pdf | 2.12 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |