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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/234| Case fatality rate of novel coronavirus disease 2019 in China | |
| Chao Ye Xiang-rong Qin Xue-Jie Yu Rui Qi | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.02.26.20028076 | |
| Abstract Background: A pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) which have caused more than 80 thousand persons infected globally is still ongoing. This study aims to calculate its case fatality rate (CFR). Methods: The method, termed as converged CFR calculation, was based on the formula of dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases T days before, where T was an average time period from case confirmation to death. It was found that supposing a T, if it was smaller (bigger) than the true T, calculated CFRs would gradually increase (decrease) to infinitely near the true T with time went on. According to the law, the true T value could be determined by trends of daily CFRs calculated with different assumed T values (left of true T is decreasing, right is increasing). Then the CFR could be calculated. Results: CFR of COVID-19 in China except Hubei Province was 0.8% to 0.9%. So far, the CFR had accurately predicted the death numbers more than 3 weeks. CFR in Hubei of China was 5.4% by which the calculated death number corresponded with the reported number for 2 weeks. Conclusion: The method could be used for CFR calculating while pandemics are still ongoing. Dynamic monitoring of the daily CFRs trends could help outbreak-controller to have a clear vision in the timeliness of the case confirmation. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This study was partially supported by a grant from National Natural Science Funds of China (No. 81971939). ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All data was avaliable in the manuscript | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.26.20028076v2 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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