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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/2304| Capacities and predicted demands of Brazil's health system in view of the novel coronavirus disease outbreak | |
| Eric Luis Barroso Cavalcante. Juliana Cristina Cardoso Ferreira. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.04.02.20050351 | |
| The aim of this work is to estimate capacities of Brazil's health system and their demand as a result of predicted incoming severe cases of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak. Three incrementing levels of hospital equipment usage are considered: (1) in terms of available intensive care unit (ICU) beds; (2) available ICU beds and existing surgery operating rooms; and (3) available ICU beds and existing surgery operating rooms and respirators located in other hospital areas. The average available (adult) ICU beds in a hospital has been computed deducting from the number of existing beds the equivalent number of beds that has been demanded during 2019 on a monthly average. Based on a reference mean duration of hospitalization for the disease, it is computed the daily admission capacity of infected patients per state and of the entire country health system for each of the three referred levels of hospital equipment usage. Furthermore, an exponential regression model is fitted using the daily available data for the number of patients who have been documented as infected in Brazil. It can then be predicted the three dates at which the health system might begin to demonstrate stress for the maximum demand of the three incrementing groups of hospital equipments. The necessary public data are analyzed by means of the Python programming language and are made available on the internet by the Department of Health Informatics of Brazil (DATASUS - Departamento de Informatica do Sistema Unico de Saude) and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE - Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica). | |
| www.medrxiv.org | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.02.20050351v4.full.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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