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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/228| Transmission interval estimates suggest pre-symptomatic spread of COVID-19 | |
| Lauren Tindale Jacco Wallinga Michelle Coombe Jessica E Stockdale Emma Garlock Wing Yin Venus Lau Manu Saraswat Yen-Hsiang Brian Lee Louxin Zhang Dongxuan Chen Caroline Colijn | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.03.20029983 | |
| Background: As the COVID-19 epidemic is spreading, incoming data allows us to quantify values of key variables that determine the transmission and the effort required to control the epidemic. We determine the incubation period and serial interval distribution for transmission clusters in Singapore and in Tianjin. We infer the basic reproduction number and identify the extent of pre-symptomatic transmission. Methods: We collected outbreak information from Singapore and Tianjin, China, reported from Jan.19-Feb.26 and Jan.21-Feb.27, respectively. We estimated incubation periods and serial intervals in both populations. Results: The mean incubation period was 7.1 (6.13, 8.25) days for Singapore and 9 (7.92, 10.2)days for Tianjin. Both datasets had shorter incubation periods for earlier-occurring cases. The mean serial interval was 4.56 (2.69, 6.42) days for Singapore and 4.22 (3.43, 5.01) for Tianjin. We inferred that early in the outbreaks, infection was transmitted on average 2.55 and 2.89days before symptom onset (Singapore, Tianjin). The estimated basic reproduction number for Singapore was 1.97 (1.45, 2.48) secondary cases per infective; for Tianjin it was 1.87 (1.65,2.09) secondary cases per infective. Conclusions: Estimated serial intervals are shorter than incubation periods in both Singapore and Tianjin, suggesting that pre-symptomatic transmission is occurring. Shorter serial intervals lead to lower estimates of R0, which suggest that half of all secondary infections should be prevented to control spread. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement CC and JS receive funding from the Canada 150 Research Chairs program of the Federal Government of Canada. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes Data are available at the link below. <https://github.com/carolinecolijn/ClustersCOVID19> | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20029983v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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