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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/226| Modelling-based evaluation of the effect of quarantine control by the Chinese government in the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak | |
| Xinkai Zhou Zhigui Wu Ranran Yu Shanni Cao Wen Fang Zhen Jiang Fang Yuan Chao Yan Dijun Chen | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.03.20030445 | |
| The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic, which was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019, has rapidly spread all over China and across the world. By the end of February 2020, the epidemic outside Hubei province in China has been well controlled, yet the next wave of transmission in other countries may have just begun. A retrospective modeling of the transmission dynamics would provide insights into the epidemiological characteristics of the disease and evaluation of the effectiveness of the strict measures that have been taken by central and local governments of China. Using a refined susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) transmission model and a new strategy of model fitting, we were able to estimate model parameters in a dynamic manner. The resulting parameter estimation can well reflect the prevention policy scenarios. Our simulation results with different degrees of government control suggest that the strictly enforced quarantine and travel ban have significantly decreased the otherwise uncontrollable spread of the disease. Our results suggest similar measures should be considered by other countries that are of high risk of COVID-19 outbreak. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement The National Natural Science Foundation of China (21877060) ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes The original data that support the findings of this study are available from the National Health Commission of the Peoples Republic of China as well as the WHO. | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20030445v2 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| modelling based evaluation.pdf | 3.43 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |