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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/2256| Critical community size for COVID-19 -- a model based approach to provide a rationale behind the lockdown | |
| Sarmistha Das. Pramit Ghosh. Bandana Sen. Indranil Mukhopadhyay. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.03126v1.pdf | |
| Background: Restrictive mass quarantine or lockdown has been implemented as the most important controlling measure to fight against COVID-19. Many countries have enforced 2 - 4 weeks' lockdown and are extending the period depending on their current disease scenario. Most probably the 14-day period of estimated communicability of COVID-19 prompted such decision. But the idea that, if the susceptible population drops below certain threshold, the infection would naturally die out in small communities after a fixed time (following the outbreak), unless the disease is reintroduced from outside, was proposed by Bartlett in 1957. This threshold was termed as Critical Community Size (CCS). Methods: We propose an SEIR model that explains COVID-19 disease dynamics. Using our model, we have calculated country-specific expected time to extinction (TTE) and CCS that would essentially determine the ideal number of lockdown days required and size of quarantined population. Findings: With the given country-wise rates of death, recovery and other parameters, we have identified that, if at a place the total number of susceptible population drops below CCS, infection will cease to exist after a period of TTE days, unless it is introduced from outside. But the disease will almost die out much sooner. We have calculated the country-specific estimate of the ideal number of lockdown days. Thus, smaller lockdown phase is sufficient to contain COVID-19. On a cautionary note, our model indicates another rise in infection almost a year later but on a lesser magnitude. | |
| arxiv.org | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.03126v1.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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