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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/2212| A simulation of a COVID-19 epidemic based on a deterministic SEIR model | |
| Jose' M. Carcione. Juan E. Santos. Claudio Bagaini. Jing Ba. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.03575v5.pdf | |
| An epidemic disease caused by a new coronavirus has spread in Northern Italy with a strong contagion rate. We implement an SEIR model to compute the infected population and number of casualties of this epidemic. The example may ideally regard the situation in the Italian Region of Lombardy, where the epidemic started on February 25, but by no means attempts to perform a rigorous case study in view of the lack of suitable data and uncertainty of the different parameters, mainly the variation of the degree of home isolation and social distancing as a function of time, the number of initially exposed individuals and infected people, the incubation and infection periods and the fatality rate. First, we perform an analysis of the results of the model, by varying the parameters and initial conditions. Then, we consider the Lombardy case and calibrate the model with the number of dead individuals to date (April 14, 2020) and constraint the parameters on the basis of values reported in the literature. The peak occurs at day 37 (April 1), when there is a rapid decrease, with a reproduction ratio R0 = 2.80 initially, 1.94 at day 22 and 0.97 after day 35, indicating different degrees of lockdown. The number of fatalities amounts to approximately 12 thousand at the end of the epidemic. The incubation period providing a better fit of the dead individuals is 5.2 days and the infection period is 3.7 days, with afatality rate of 0.00053/day [values based on the reported (official) number of casualties]. The infection fatality rate (IFR) is 0.2 % (0.45 % if twice the reported number of casualties is assumed). If we use a wider range for the constraints, we obtain ca. 13 days and 5.53 days for the incubation and infection periods, respectively, and a higher IFR, ca. 0.6 %. These values become ca. 9 days, 7.6 days and 1.2 % assuming two times more casualties. | |
| arxiv.org | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.03575v5.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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