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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/221| Modeling the Epidemic Dynamics and Control of COVID-19 Outbreak in China | |
| Shilei Zhao Hua Chen | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.02.27.20028639 | |
| The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is rapidly spreading over China and more than 30 countries in last two months. COVID-19 has multiple characteristics distinct from other infectious diseases, including a high infectivity during incubation, time delay between real dynamics and daily observed case numbers, and the effects from multiple quarantine and control measures. We develop a model SUQC to adequately characterizes the dynamics of COVID-19 and explicitly model the control by artificial measures, which is more suitable for analysis than other existing epidemic models. The SUQC model is applied to the daily released data of the confirmed infected to analyze the outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, Hubei (excluding Wuhan), China (excluding Hubei) and four first-tier cities of China. We find that, before January 30, 2020, all these regions except Beijing have a reproductive number R>1, and after January 30, all regions have a reproductive number R<1, indicating the effectiveness of the quarantine and control measures in inhibiting COVID-19. The confirmation rate of Wuhan is 0.0643, significantly lower than 0.1914 of Hubei (excluding Wuhan) and 0.2189 of China (excluding Hubei), but increases to 0.3229 after Feb 12th when clinical diagnosis was adopted. The un-quarantined infected individuals in Wuhan on February 12, 2020 is as high as 3,509 and decreases to 334 on February 21th, 2020. After fitting the model with recent data, we predict that the end times of COVID-19 of Wuhan and Hubei are around late-March, of China (excluding Hubei) around mid-March, and of the four tier-one cities before March 2020. A total of 80,511 individuals of the whole country are infected, among which 49,510 are from Wuhan, 17,679 from Hubei(excluding Wuhan), and the rest 13,322 from other regions of China (excluding Hubei). We suggest the rigorous quarantine and control measures should be kept before March in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and before late-March in Hubei. The model can also be useful to predict the trend of epidemic and provide quantitative guide for other counties in a high risk of outbreak, such as South Korea, Japan and Iran. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This project was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 31571370, 91631106, and 91731302), the "Strategic Priority Research Program" of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDB13000000), the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2018YFC1406902), and the One Hundred Talents Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes the data is from public resources (daily released case numbers by the official agency). The data is posted in the supplement. | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.27.20028639v2 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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