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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/220| Preliminary estimating the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea and Italy by 5 March 2020 | |
| Zian Zhuang Qianying Lin Peihua Cao Yijun Lou Lin Yang Shu Yang Li Xiao Shi Zhao Daihai He | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.02.20030312 | |
| The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak and Italy has caused 6088 cases and 41 deaths in Republic of Korea and 3144 cases and 107 death in Italy by 5 March 2020. We modeled the transmission process in Republic of Korea and Italy with a stochastic model and estimated the basic reproduction number R0 as 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3-2.9) or 3.2 (95% CI: 2.9-3.5) in Republic of Korea, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 31 January or 5 February 2020, and 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3-2.9) or 3.3 (95% CI: 3.0-3.6) in Italy, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 5 February or 10 February 2020. Estimates of dispersion term (k) were 10 (95% CI: 5-56) or 22 (95% CI: 8-61) in Republic of Korea, and 13 (95% CI: 5-61) or 37 (95% CI: 13-61) in Italy, and all of which imply few super-spreading events. ### Competing Interest Statement DH was supported by an Alibaba-Hong Kong Polytechnic University Collaborative Research project. Other authors declare no competing interests. ### Funding Statement DH was supported by General Research Fund (15205119) of Research Grants Council of Hong Kong and an Alibaba-Hong Kong Polytechnic University Collaborative Research project. The funding agencies had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript; or decision to submit the manuscript for publication. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes We used only publicly available data. | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.02.20030312v2 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| Preliminary estimating.pdf | 10.2 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |