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A deterministic epidemic model for the emergence of COVID-19 in China
Jingtao Qi
Meng Wang
Novel Coronavirus
Acceso Abierto
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) broke out in Wuhan, Hubei province,China, in December 2019 and soon after Chinese health authorities tookunprecedented prevention and control measures to curb the spreading ofthe novel coronavirus-related pneumonia. We develop a mathematicalmodel based on daily updates of reported cases to study the evolutionof the epidemic. With the model, on 95% confidence level, we estimatethe basic reproduction number, R0 = 2.82 ± 0.11, time between March19 and March 21 when the effective reproduction number becoming lessthan one, the epidemic ending after April 2 and the total number ofconfirmed cases approaching 14408 ± 429 on the Chinese mainlandexcluding Hubei province. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement none. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes The epidemic data are collected from reports on the official web pages of National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China. <>
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
Appears in Collections:Artículos científicos

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