Por favor, use este identificador para citar o enlazar este ítem:
http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/215| Modelling the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship using the public surveillance data from January 20 to February 20, 2020 | |
| Zian Zhuang Marc Chong Yongli Cai Jinjun Ran Kai Wang Yijun Lou Daozhou Gao Peihua Cao Weiming Wang Lin Yang Maggie H Wang Shi Zhao Daihai He | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.02.26.20028449 | |
| The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship has caused over 634 cases as of February 20, 2020. We model the transmission process on the ship with a stochastic model and estimate the basic reproduction number at 2.2 (95%CI: 2.1−2.4). We estimate a large dispersion parameter than other coronaviruses, which implies that the virus is difficult to go extinction. The epidemic doubling time is at 4.6 days (95%CI: 3.0−9.3), and thus timely actions were crucial. The lesson learnt on the ship is generally applicable in other settings. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement DH was supported by General Research Fund (Grant Number 15205119) of the Research Grants Council (RGC) of Hong Kong, China. WW was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Number 61672013) and Huaian Key Laboratory for Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention (Grant Number HAP201704), Huaian, Jiangsu, China. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes We used publicly available data only. | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.26.20028449v3 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
Cargar archivos:
| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Modelling the coronavirus disease.pdf | 1.04 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |