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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/214| Real-time monitoring the transmission potential of COVID-19 in Singapore, February 2020 | |
| Amna Tariq Yiseul Lee Kimberlyn Roosa Seth Blumberg Ping Yan Stefan Ma Gerardo Chowell | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial | |
| 10.1101/2020.02.21.20026435 | |
| The ongoing COVID-19 epidemic that spread widely in China since December 2019 is now generating local transmission in multiple countries including Singapore as of March 5, 2020. This highlights the need to monitor in real time the transmission potential of COVID-19. In Singapore, four major COVID-19 case clusters have emerged thus far. Here we estimate the effective reproduction number, Rt, of COVID-19 in Singapore from the publicly available daily case series of imported and autochthonous cases by date of symptoms onset, after adjusting the local cases for reporting delays. We also derive the reproduction number from the distribution of cluster sizes using a branching process analysis. The effective reproduction number peaked with a mean value ~1.0 around February 6-12, 2020 and declined thereafter. As of March 5, 2020, our most recent estimate of Rt is at 0.9 (95% CI: 0.7,1.0) while an estimate of the overall R based on cluster size distribution is at 0.7 (95% CI: 0.5, 1.0). The trajectory of the reproduction number in Singapore underscore the significant effects of containment efforts in Singapore while at the same time suggest the need to sustain social distancing and active case finding efforts to stomp out all active chains of transmission. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement G.C. is supported by NSF grants 1610429 and 1633381. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All data are publicly available. | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.21.20026435v6 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| real time.pdf | 3.96 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |