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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/211| Predicting cohort-specific cervical cancer incidence from population-based HPV prevalence surveys: a worldwide study | |
| Rosa Schulte-Frohlinde Damien Georges Gary M Clifford Iacopo Baussano | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.10.20031013 | |
| Background Predictions of cervical cancer burden and impact of control measures are often modelled from HPV prevalence. However, predictions could be improved by data on time between prevalent HPV detection and cervical cancer occurrence. Methods Based upon high-risk (HR) HPV prevalence and cervical cancer incidence in the same birth cohorts from 17 worldwide locations, and informed by individual-level data on age at HR HPV detection and on sexual debut, we built a mixed model to predict cervical cancer incidence up to 14 years following prevalent HR HPV detection. Findings Cervical cancer incidence increased significantly during the 14 years following HR HPV detection in women <35 years, e.g. from 0.02 (95% CI 0.003-0.06) per 1000 within 1 year to 2.8 (1.2-6.5) at 14 years for unscreened women, but remained relatively constant following prevalent HR HPV detection above 35 years, e.g. from 5.4 (2.5-11) per 1000 within 1 year to 6.4 (2.4-17.1) at 14 years for unscreened HR HPV positive women aged 45-54 years. Age at sexual debut was a significant modifier of cervical cancer incidence in HR HPV positive women aged <25, but less so at older ages, whereas screening was a modifier in women ≥35 years. Lastly, we predicted annual number and incidence of cervical cancer in ten additional IARC HPV prevalence survey locations without representative cancer incidence data. Interpretation These findings can inform cervical cancer control programmes, particularly in settings without cancer registries, as they allow prediction of future cervical cancer burden from population-based surveys of HPV prevalence. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Clinical Trial N/A ### Funding Statement This work was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation [OPP 1188709]; and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research [334069]. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes Incidence: C15 Vol. VIII-XI (1993-2012) Prevalence: IARC Prevalence Surveys (1993-2008) Population: UN Population Prospects (1993-2012) Mortality: UN Population Prospects (1993-2012) | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.10.20031013v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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