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Networks of information token recurrences derived from genomic sequences may reveal hidden patterns in epidemic outbreaks: A case study of the 2019-nCoV coronavirus.
Markus Luczak-Roesch
Novel Coronavirus
Acceso Abierto
Atribución
10.1101/2020.02.07.20021139
Profiling the genetic evolution and dynamic spreading of viruses is a crucial task when responding to epidemic outbreaks. We aim to devise novel ways to model, visualise and analyse the temporal dynamics of epidemic outbreaks in order to help researchers and other people involved in crisis response to make well-informed and targeted decisions about from which geographical locations and time periods more genetic samples may be required to fully understand the outbreak. Our approach relies on the application of Transcendental Information Cascades to a set of temporally ordered nucleotide sequences and we apply it to real-world data that was collected during the currently ongoing outbreak of the novel 2019-nCoV coronavirus. We assess information-theoretic and network-theoretic measures that characterise the resulting complex network and suggest touching points and temporal pathways that are of interest for deeper investigation by geneticists and epidemiologists. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement No external funding was received for this research. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes This study uses secondary data that was obtained from the GISAID EpiFlu™ Database. The software used in this study is available as open source software to allow for reproduction of our analysis. <https://www.gisaid.org/> <https://github.com/vuw-c2lab/transcendental-information-cascades/tree/master/input/2020-02-03-2019nCoV>
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
2020
Preimpreso
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021139v2
Inglés
VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS
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