Por favor, use este identificador para citar o enlazar este ítem:
http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/204| Transmission characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China: a study driven by data | |
| Baojun Song Qianqian Yuan Meili Li Pian Chen Junling Ma | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.02.26.20028431 | |
| The COVID-19 outbreak has been a serious public health threat worldwide. We use individually documented case descriptions of COVID-19 from China (excluding Hubei Province) to estimate the distributions of the generation time, incubation period, and periods from symptom onset to isolation and to diagnosis. The recommended 14-day quarantine period may lead to a 6.7% failure for quarantine. We recommend a 22-day quarantine period. The mean generation time is 3.3 days and the mean incubation period is 7.2 days. It took 3.7 days to isolate and 6.6 days to diagnose a patient after his/her symptom onset. Patients may become infectious on average 3.9 days before showing major symptoms. This makes contact tracing and quarantine ineffective. The basic reproduction number is estimated to be 1.54 with contact tracing, quarantine and isolation, mostly driven by super spreaders. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This research is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 11771075) (ML), State Scholarship Fund of China (CSC No. 201906635011) (ML), a Fundamental Research Grant for Chinese Universities (ML), and a Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council Canada Discovery Grant (JM). MLs work is carried out when she is a visiting scholar at Montclair State University. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes Data will be made available once it is made into publishable format and validated. | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.26.20028431v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
Cargar archivos:
| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Transmission characteristics.pdf | 302.09 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |