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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/2020| Modeling the transmission of new coronavirus in São Paulo State, Brazil -- Assessing epidemiological impacts of isolating young and elder persons | |
| Hyun Mo Yang. Luis Pedro Lombardi Junior. Ariana Campos Yang. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.05715v1.pdf | |
| We developed a mathematical model to describe the transmission of new coronavirus in the S~ao Paulo State, Brazil. The model divided a community in subpopulations comprised by young and elder persons, in order to take into account higher risk of fatality among elder persons with severe CoViD-19. From data collected in the S~ao Paulo State, we estimated the transmission and additional mortality rates, from which we calculated the basic reproduction number R0. From estimated parameters, estimation of the deaths due to CoViD-19 was three times lower than those found in literature. Considering isolation as a control mechanism, we varied isolation rates of young and elder persons in order to assess their epidemiological impacts. The epidemiological scenarios focused mainly on evaluating the number of severe CoViD-19 cases and deaths due to this disease when isolation is introduced in a population. | |
| arxiv.org | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.05715v1.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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